By Mohamed AG Ahmedou, journalist and analyst of Sahel-Saharan political and security dynamics
The government in Bamako is reeling, and the myth of “regained sovereignty” is crumbling as the country sinks deeper into crisis. In less than a month, Mali has been paralyzed by unprecedented economic asphyxiation. Roads are blocked, tanks are burning, fuel stocks are dwindling, and the population is relying on an increasingly isolated government.
Meanwhile, former Russian mercenaries are dismantling FAMAS, which they call cowardly and fearful, as if to symbolize the deconstruction of a state once at war with terrorism, now abandoned to its own deceptions.
The myth of “regained sovereignty” is crumbling
Since the two coups d’état in August 2020 and May 2021, Colonel Assimi Goïta had promised to revive a country plagued by corruption and insecurity. Five years later, Malians are facing a bitter reality: Mali has become a country dependent on Russian military support and a jihadist economic blockade.
The “dream of sovereignty” has turned into a logistical nightmare. Fuel supplies, the backbone of the economy, are now dependent on the whims of the JNIM (Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims), which is increasing its attacks on convoys coming from Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, and Mauritania.
Kolondiéba and Louloni: The Flames of Failure
On October 5 and 6, 2025, two successive attacks by the JNIM targeted fuel tankers in Louloni and Kolondiéba, in the south of the country. The images of the burned-out vehicles, shared on social media, serve as a reminder of the Malian government’s inability to secure vital economic routes. A few days earlier, the junta’s Prime Minister, Colonel Abdoulaye Maïga, chaired an “interministerial committee for crisis and disaster management” intended to strengthen convoy security. It had no effect. The reality on the ground has swept away Bamako’s triumphant rhetoric.
Shortages: a symptom of a failed state
Since early September, the situation has worsened. JNIM now controls or neutralizes several sections of road that connect Mali to its coastal neighbors. Fuel, already scarce in Bamako, is selling for exorbitant prices on the black market. According to Malian journalist Malick Konaté, the meeting itself diverted several tankers of fuel destined for the Sadiola gold mine in the Kayes region. This serious accusation illustrates the confusion and disorder of a system where vital resources are exploited for the benefit of a small military circle.
Official Denial: A Power Lying to Its People
Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop continues to assert that “Mali has the situation under control.” The same man who, just yesterday, denied the presence of Wagner’s Russian mercenaries on Malian soil. A political duplicity that Malians have not forgotten. As for Choguel Maïga, the former Prime Minister and self-proclaimed ideologue of “Malian nationalism,” he also mocked those who denounced Wagner’s presence. Today, Russian mercenaries are dismantling the FAMAS, symbols of the French-trained Malian army, and are redrawing the map of military power in their own way.
An Economy in Freefall
In 32 days of partial blockade, Mali has lost several billion CFA francs. Transportation is paralyzed, food prices are soaring, and foreign mining companies are worried. Gas stations are dry, cities are running at a standstill, and people are exhausted searching for fuel “by the liter,” sometimes sold at ten times its official price. The country is sinking into a war economy scenario, where survival takes precedence over dignity.
An Illegal and Illegitimate Power Facing Its Own Impasse
Assimi Goïta, the putschist colonel and self-proclaimed “savior of the nation,” now seems helpless. The propaganda of “Mali Kura,” or “New Mali” in the dominant Bambara language of the southern regions, no longer convinces anyone. Patriotic slogans cannot mask the collapse of governance, nor the failure of a regime that has cut itself off from its people and its neighbors. The military, by refusing any real political dialogue and criminalizing dissent, has transformed sovereignty into isolation, and the fight against terrorism into a pretext for repression.
Towards a silent implosion?
The Malian state, under the rule of a visionless junta, seems to be crumbling by inertia. Dissenting voices are muzzled, the media are silenced, and civilian elites are being silenced. But the economic chaos, roadblocks, and popular anger point to a new phase: one in which the exhausted Malian people could demand accountability from those who made the “transition” a lifelong regime.
The illusion of strong power
History will perhaps record that while jihadists were burning tanks, Russian mercenaries were dismantling FAMAS, and Malian leaders were multiplying their denials. The illusion of a “sovereign Mali” is dissolving into the reality of a weakened, fractured, and discredited state. A country held hostage between jihadism and the authoritarian drift of an illegitimate power.
Mohamed AG Ahmedou
08-10-25